By Kavita Mistry 
Chandigarh: Punjab’s ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has retained the Tarn Taran assembly seat, with party candidate Harmeet Singh Sandhu securing a win by a hefty margin of 12,000 votes, defeating Shiromani Akali Dal’s (SAD’s) Sukhwinder Kaur Randhawa.
Sandhu, a former Akali who had shifted to AAP ahead of these elections, secured almost 42,700 votes while Randhawa got over 30,500 votes.
While AAP’s choice of candidate has clearly gone in their favour, the Akalis coming in second is the more significant takeaway from the results, signalling the revival of the party after a decade. The result also re-establishes Sukhbir Singh Badal as leader of the SAD, a position his dissenters had been asking him to vacate for the past two years.
Independent candidate Mandeep Singh, who had the common support of all major radical groups in Punjab, came in third with almost 20,000 votes. Apart from the fact that the presence of a panthic candidate divided the core Akali vote bank, the results signal the electorate’s rejection of the radical agenda.
The Congress and BJP competed for fourth and fifth positions. Congress candidate Karanbir Singh Burj was fourth with 15,000 votes and BJP’s Harjit Singh Sandhu was a distant fifth with a little over 6,000 votes. Back-to-back faux pas by Congress’s state chief Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and Leader of Opposition Partap Singh Bajwa, and their absence from the constituency in the last two days of campaigning seems to have cost the party.
For the BJP, which had claimed to have made inroads into rural parts of the state, the result shows any real inroads in Punjab remains a daunting, uphill task for the party.
This panthic seat with a majority of rural Sikh voters was won by Dr Dharambir Agnihotri of the Congress in 2017 and by AAP’s Dr Kashmir Singh Sohal in 2022. In both these elections, Harmeet Sandhu had come in second as the Akali candidate. The Tarn Taran seat had fallen vacant following Sohal’s death in June.
There were a total of 15 candidates in the fray. The polling saw a voter turnout of 60.95%. In the 2022 assembly polls, Tarn Taran had seen a voter turnout of 65.81 per cent.
‘Wake-up call for AAP’
Despite facing anti-incumbency, the ruling AAP has passed this litmus test by getting a much needed thumbs up from voters in the border constituency.
Reacting to the victory, Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann wrote on X that the people of Punjab had reiterated that they are in favour of “politics of work”. “We are on a winning spree under the leadership of Arvind Kejriwal,” said Mann.
https://x.com/BhagwantMann/
Experts however, believe there are not many reasons for AAP to rejoice.
“For AAP, there is a need to mend their politics if they want to make a serious bid for victory in the 2027 assembly elections. In 2022, the AAP candidate had won the seat by almost 53,000 votes. The party has lost votes in this constituency even though they have won because of the electoral arithmetic. More than double of those who voted for the AAP candidate voted against him,” said Dr Pramod Kumar, heading the Institute of Development and Communication (IDC) in Chandigarh.
Dr Kanwalpreet Kaur of the department of political science, DAV College in Chandigarh, told ThePrint, “Harmeet Sandhu has been politically active on this seat for over 10 years and is a well-known name. AAP is in power and in bye-elections this fact also makes a huge difference.”
“That the ECI had to suspend SSP Ravjot Kaur for her open bias in favour of the AAP, points towards the government misusing its machinery in the elections. Despite the victory, I believe this election is more of a wake up call for the AAP. The number of people who voted for them is about 43,000 while those who voted against them is almost 70,000,” added Kaur.
According to Prof Harjeshwar Singh of the department of history, SGGS College, Sector 26, Chandigarh, AAP’s victory was expected due to the full use of government machinery. “Sam, dam, danda, bhed, everything was used. Moreover, Harmeet Sandhu already had a base and recall value in the constituency. The AAP performed well in both rural and urban areas and among all social sections—Jatt, OBC, Hindu, Dalits,” said Prof Singh.
2nd position signals Akali revival
Though SAD didn’t win the seat, their being in second position signals a comeback. Despite the Akalis’ traditional vote bank on the seat being divided with a substantial number of votes going into the kitty of the radical candidate, the results give evidence they can still mount a credible challenge, especially in key regions.
The results also show a revival of Sukhbir, who focused on a disciplined campaign and base mobilisation. SAD’s place in polls is bound to rejuvenate the party ahead of 2027, serving as an important morale boost.
Speaking to media persons, Badal said Friday that in Tarn Taran, AAP had lost and Punjab Police had won, possibly alluding that AAP used government machinery to win.
https://twitter.com/
Prof Harjeshwar said SAD is the real winner in this contest. “Despite formidable odds—loss of Harmeet Sandhu, panthic challenge, Bikram Majithia in jail—SAD still held its own and fought tooth and nail in the villages. Only Tarn Taran urban area and the belt around let it down.This should boost Sukhbir Badal’s stature and also could go a long way in settling the debate about which is the real Akali Dal,” he told ThePrint.
Dr Pramod added that the transformative phase of Punjab politics has visibly begun. “This transformation can be seen in terms of the resurgence of a regional party, the SAD, in its own domain of a panthic constituency. This victory also establishes the leadership of Sukhbir Badal in the realm of Akali politics, both as having secured a hold on the party as also the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC). This victory is a big setback to the dissenters in the party,” said Dr Kumar.
Electorate rejects radicals
Experts add that the performance of the radical candidate Mandeep Singh on the seat sends a potent political message that the people of Punjab stand for communal harmony and peace. Mandeep is the brother of Sandeep Singh, the main accused in the 2022 murder of Shiv Sena leader Sudhir Suri. Sandeep is also accused of an attack on three former police officers inside the Patiala jail. One of them, Suba Singh, succumbed to his injuries in September.
Mandeep’s candidacy was backed by Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De) led by jailed Khadoor Sahib MP Amritpal Singh, Giani Harpreet Singh-led Shiromani Akali Dal (Punar Surjit), Simranjit Singh Mann-led SAD (Amritsar) and some fringe radical Sikh outfits.
“Tarn Taran voters chose the Akali Dal which was clearly poised against the radical Akali Dal and the others. This is the same radical element that had made Amritpal win the Khadoor Sahib seat in the parliamentary elections. In these elections Akali Dal had positioned itself openly in the secular political space,” said Dr. Kumar.
“Mandeep’s loss proved that emotional appeal and social media can’t take you far if you lack resources, a credible agenda and organisation. This result could also take the wind out of the Punar Surjit Akali Dal and throw a spanner in the works of the radicals who were comprehensibly defeated in their home turf,” added Prof Harjeshwar.
“The result is also chastening for all social media influencers who made a beeline to support Mandeep. They need to understand that real politics is a lot more hard work than emotional rants and political tourism,” said Prof Harjeshwar.
Shocker for Congress
The Congress’s Tarn Taran candidate was district unit chief Karanbir Singh Burj, an agriculturalist and businessman, contesting for the first time.
“Congress perhaps is the worst loser. An unknown candidate, intense factionalism and Raja Warring’s “foot in mouth” disease led to a humiliating defeat for them.Congress needs an urgent course correction if it wants to be a challenger for 2027. The result could lead to a change of leadership in the party,” said Prof Harjeshwar.
Dr Kumar said the result was a major wake up call for the Congress which was smug in believing it is the only alternative left before the people of Punjab to oppose the AAP in 2027. “The Congress in 4th position needs to really shake up its leadership,” he told ThePrint.
Reacting to the result Warring wrote on X that this one result will not change their focus. “We humbly accept the people’s verdict in the Tarn Taran by-election. I wish to extend my gratitude to our workers who fought with honesty and courage.”
“This loss won’t stop us. It only pushes us to work harder. We will come back stronger — with the people, for the people of Punjab,” he added.
https://twitter.com/RajaBrar_
Long way to go for BJP
The BJP fielded Harjit Singh Sandhu, its district unit head. Dr Pramod said the lesson for the BJP was that it cannot on its own compete in Punjab politics and need to go back to alliance politics.
“The result was disappointing for BJP too as they could not even get as many votes as they did in Lok Sabha. This could force them to form an alliance with Akali Dal,” added Prof Harjeshwar.
BJP state president Sunil Jakhar said the Tarn Taran poll result indicated the party needs to do more work to transform the development agenda into a people’s agenda and ensure information about the central government’s schemes for the poor reaches every single person.
https://twitter.com/
(Edited by Vidhi Bhutra)
Also read: Anta acid test: Congress’ Bhaya wins bypoll as BJP unity parade meets 1st speed bump