TN govt should roll up its sleeves, not keep fingers crossed

I had divided the political campaign in Tamil Nadu for the 2026 assembly election into ‘before Karur’ and ‘after Karur’. Looks like it must also be split into ‘before rain’ and ‘after rain’.

Not waiting for the Election Commission notification, major parties in the state launched their campaigns a few months ago. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami started his roadshows in Coimbatore in July with the slogan ‘Makkalai kaappom, Tamizhagathai meetpom’ (Let’s protect our people, redeem Tamil Nadu). DMK, meanwhile, has been working more on its organizational set-up, activating its district and grassroots cadres. Chief minister M K Stalin focused on projecting his govt’s performance, deputy chief minister Udhayanidhi Stalin and other ministers went around addressing cadres and people. Actor and TVK president Vijay made everyone sit up and take note of the swelling crowds as his bandwagon wound through the districts. And then, on Sep 27, the Karur stampede happened.

Forty-one people died, Vijay went into virtual hiding, EPS slowed down his roadshows, and DMK continued with its cadre activation and govt promotion. On Oct 13, Supreme Court suspended the Aruna Jagadeesan commission and the special investigation team that TN govt had appointed to investigate the stampede and ordered a CBI inquiry. Now, EPS is back in action, taking on Stalin with renewed vigour while opening channels to get Vijay into his alliance with or without BJP. Vijay has shown the magnanimity to meet the grieving families of Karur – at a place of his convenience.

Despite the Supreme Court observations and the probable political reconfiguration, DMK has been able to retain the edge, at least in public perception. While the political weather hasn’t shaken the ruling party, the meteorological weather may well pose the biggest challenge to the DMK alliance. Monsoon has always been linked to the political prospects of ruling parties, especially when the rains happen closer to the elections. A good monsoon often means good harvest, happy farmers, good economy, and a happy govt. But when the rain exceeds ‘normal’ and preparedness falls short, it spells doom for farmers and trouble for the govt.

The north-east monsoon, with its accompanying cyclones, has just started, and the Cauvery delta region is already in distress. As TOI reporter Antony Fernando wrote last week, the govt has so far procured only 5.6 lakh tonnes of paddy. Even if the govt manages to take the projected 9.5 lakh tonnes of the Kuruvai procurement, its godowns can’t hold more than 7.5 lakh tonnes (and there’s considerable stockpile from the previous season). With inadequate storage facilities, much of the procured paddy has germinated, making them fit for only chicken feed. And huge piles of harvested paddy lie soaked in rain.

EPS, who has been successful in cultivating an agriculturalist image for himself, wasted no time. He was the first to visit the wailing farmers of Thanjavur. Pausing to hold a fistful of the soiled produce as farmers poured out their grievance, EPS made great visual impact. And that’s something DMK should be worried about. Blaming the Union govt’s fortified rice scheme for delay in procurement and disruption of supply chain wouldn’t console the farmers. Agriculture contributes less than 13 per cent of Tamil Nadu’s income, but more than 55 per cent of the state’s population depends on agriculture; 80 per cent of them are farmers.

If copious rain means distress for farmers, it spells disaster for our cities. Chennai went under water in 2005, 2015 and 2023 (not to count the lesser floods in the past two decades), and the city’s monsoon preparedness remains abysmal. Chennai’s 3,040km of drains cover little more than half of the city’s roads. With 25 per cent of drain interlinking work remaining incomplete, when heavens open, it’ll be hell down here.

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