By Kavita Mistry 
Chennai: Since the BJP and the AIADMK renewed their alliance in April 2025, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly asserted his party will be part of the NDA government in Tamil Nadu after the 2026 assembly elections, only to receive sharp rejections from the ally.
The latest rejection followed Shah’s 27 June reassertion, with political analysts in the state saying the AIADMK’s firm refusal stems from its desire to preserve its Dravidian identity and avoid alienating voters in a state where single-party rule has prevailed even when the Dravidian parties failed to get a clear majority.
Ever since the Dravidian party entered the electoral foray, although they contested the election with alliance, they never shared power with their partners, even when they failed to get a majority on their own.
In the 2006 assembly election, for instance, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) could not secure a majority—it won 96 seats while the majority mark in the 234-seat assembly was 118—and its alliance partners including the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the Congress supported the government from outside.
In the past, the AIADMK also contested elections with the alliance partners but never needed to share power with them as it won a majority of its own.
The AIADMK and the BJP had not formed an alliance for a state election until 2021, when they joined hands in Tamil Nadu the first time. But they failed to get a majority.
Although the two major Dravidian parties have depended on their allies for bolstering chances in elections, political analysts in the state say the senior parties never want the smaller parties to grow in the state beyond a certain point.
Analyst A Ramasamy said the Dravidian parties partner with their smaller allies to garner votes but not to share power.
“The Dravidian parties really do not want the alliance partners to grow at their cost. Election after election, we could only see that the dravidian parties are trying to reduce the number of seats allocated to the alliance partners depending upon their previous election performance,” Ramasamy told ThePrint.
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‘Coalitions cause chaos’
Speaking to ThePrint, political analyst N Sathiya Moorthy said the people of Tamil Nadu have never been in favour of alliance governments as they believe it will not be stable.
“Tamils have a deep-rooted belief that coalitions cause chaos, even if they don’t know the history. This idea, passed down by past leaders and voters, makes the coalition government seem unstable,” Moorthy told ThePrint.
However, the idea of coalition governments has found favours among smaller allies.
“But, in the current political scenario, the expression of interest should come from the dominant Dravidian parties and not from us. Only when these two Dravidian parties become weaker so much so that they fall short of forming a government, then, other parties which have the numbers to support the government can demand a share in power. Until then, it will just be a discussion in Tamil Nadu,” Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) general secretary Sinthanai Selvan told ThePrint.
Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam general secretary Premalatha Vijayakanth told the media in Chennai Monday she is for a coalition government. “When the elections are fought together, why not form a government together?” she said, adding it was for the dominant players to decide.
When asked about it, DMK spokesperson TKS Elangovan told ThePrint there is no necessity to talk about a coalition government.
“None of our alliance partners has demanded it. Even when we were short of a majority in 2006, we formed a government with their support, because political parties in Tamil Nadu know the challenges of a coalition government,” Elangovan said.
AIADMK spokesperson and former Minister Vaigai Chelvan told ThePrint the people of the state itself would not be in favour of the idea.
“Whether you declare before the election or not, just by seat-sharing numbers, people will find out what’s there in the cards. Past elections have proved that people don’t trust an alliance that pitches for a coalition government,” Vaigai Chelvan told ThePrint.
Speaking to ThePrint, the BJP’s former state president Tamilisai Soundararajan also said it would be an alliance government post 2006 elections. “We stress that the election will be fought by the NDA alliance and that alliance will form a government. It is being twisted with ill intentions,” she told ThePrint.
Political Commentator Raveendran Duraisamy said the people of Tamil Nadu have always voted in a way that a single party rules the state. “Even if a third and fourth front divide the DMK and AIADMK votes, the collective conscience of people works in a way that one party gets the majority to form the government,” he said.
(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)
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